Trading Insights

Trading Insights

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August 27, 2018

The beginning of the end....how the Sun is shutting down the bull run (again)

Trading Insights
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For 10 years, I've observed how markets  - and consequently mass psychology - relate to what WD Gann referred to as "Natural Law", or the, "law of Vibration".

About 9 years into my study of time, I started to see dots connecting like string between crime scene photos in some CSI detective show. Everything started lining up. 

One of my first public verifications - was a prediction I'd made for the last total solar eclipse. I'd gone back and studied over 20 years of the event in question, and noticed that in almost every instance, the market put in a very distinct "w" pattern, and rose from the lower leg of the "w" up past the highs after the eclipse.

Here's a link to that video, if you're interested in the study. You can go back and see for yourself what happened the day after the eclipse - and compare it to my findings....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoSZSD9VzFY

I find patterns, all the time - like the one I showed everyone in the AUDUSD in my last YouTube post:

In that video, I showed years of patterns - cycles that people just forget to look for....and what to expect "vibrationally".

I've got a very important class for you to download and watch - if you're interested in understanding one of the biggest cycles of them all.

The one that precedes every large recession, and global conflict.

Not the "evangelist claims the end of the world" type stuff. 

The kind of cycles that banks watch - and arguably start with their financial and geo-political influence.

Here's the class - I gave it earlier this summer in my annual Las Vegas trading conference. 

The market has been following the pattern I described in the video - identically since then.

Just like the AUDUSD....just like the solar eclipse patterns.

Note: You MUST DOWNLOAD the file to view it on your PC. Dropbox is not a video player - but will preview the video a few minutes.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/gokv2kccticin6v/VEGAS%20VIP%202%20_%20BIG%20CRASH.mp4?dl=0

I promise - this video is based on science, and cycles you can point to factually. 

Events that happen over and over and over again - if you're watching.

I taught the class to 10 people. I'm giving you the opportunity to view this - and share with as many people as you can before this move happens. 

Don't say you weren't warned. 

Want to know more about what we've developed for the trading community?

Click here to take a video demo of the concepts behind our products - and get on our newsletter list where we'll send you free intrada predictions each week for popular futures and forex markets:

https://backtothefuturetrading.com/demo/

If you'd like to take a look at some of our end of day predictive software for traders like you - as well as our line of intraday predictive TIME based tools - please sign up for one of our webinars. 

We have demonstration webinars each week:

Stocks and options /longer term swing trades (Meets every Tuesday)

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6385063425639321345

Intraday predictive signals for futures, equities, and Forex (Meets every Thursday)

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/300000000004294770

You can also learn a lot by subscribing to our YouTube channel.....

https://www.youtube.com/user/BackToTheFutureTradi

Thank you for your time - and remember - the market you trade is not random. 

Next article coming up soon. 

automate
July 21, 2018

TSLA predictive study with Gann Vibration (FORCE)

Trading Insights
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In this tutorial, I'll demonstrate how we can apply predictive "cause/effect" vibratory studies like WD Gann did to modern day markets and instruments like TSLA. if you like these kinds of studies - please let me know what other markets you'd like me to apply them to and I'll create new workspaces for you for future installments of this series!

Watch and use this video to help determine when to expect TSLA to potentially move in the future, based on its underlying "source code"

https://vimeo.com/281094697

 

Here's where you can download NinjaTrader 7 for free, and connect to the NinjaTrader free End of Day data like I did in the video. There's no charge for it - they keep end of day data open for free forever (remember, you want version 7 for now....)

www.ninjatrader.com

Here's a copy of my workspace for you to upload and use in your analysis. All of the studies I've created on the chart will appear on yours once you load it up:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/2kv7kepw6g769re/TSLA_FORCE_EXERCISE.xml?dl=0

After you download Ninjatrader - you've got to save this file (download direct) to the following folder:

MyDocuments/Ninja7/Workspaces

Once you've done that - you can go to the control panel - connect to the data - and then click "FILE----WORKSPACES----OPEN" to open the file. (If you need help with this let me know......Michael@backtothefuturetrading.com).

And oh.....

Here's the guidebook with the patterns explained from the video...to know what to expect at each of the lines.....

https://www.dropbox.com/s/57jeogrcsz5cv23/Histogram_Guidebook_v3.pdf?dl=0

Want to know more about what we've developed for the trading community?

Click here to take a video demo of the concepts behind our products - and get on our newsletter list where we'll send you free intrada predictions each week for popular futures and forex markets:

https://backtothefuturetrading.com/demo/

We have demonstration webinars each week:

Stocks and options /longer term swing trades (Meets every Tuesday)

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6385063425639321345

Intraday predictive signals for futures, equities, and Forex (Meets every Thursday)

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/300000000004294770

automate
June 1, 2017

Predictive trading indicators for market research

Tags: , , Trading Insights
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Over the course of the last nine years we have been pioneering money and innovative ways to forecast the markets that people are researching and trading using predictive trading Indicators.  The majority of that time we have focused intensely on shorter-term trade set ups, where most of the signals fall within a one minute to a 15 minute or even a 60 Minute time frame. However in the last several years we have begin to explore new ways to analyze the market on even higher time frames including daily bars and end of day bar analyses.

In the following tutorial video several different methods and techniques for projecting what the major Futures and Forex markets will do out into the future. This indicator focuses on 4 predictive phases, whose arrival dates are known out into the future. Using the 4 energy phases - we can anticipate which phase of the 4 is about to come next, and study what usually happens at that phase. In this sense, this Ninjatrader indicator (as well as Tradestation indicator) is unique in it's ability to tell us what should or might happen in the future. 

We also explore the concept of "exertion" levels at these phases. That is to say, we study how far the market moves on average at each of the past phases when we arrive at them. This can give us some sense of knowing how far to expect a market to move when it eventually does move. We'll usually see 2-3 "groups" of exertion levels, as you'll see in the video. These exertion levels are measured at the dates of the past moves, using the predictive market indicators like the Daily Cycle Marker tool.  We demonstrated this technique earlier in our analysis of the 6B, Great British Pound futures instrument. 

Finally - we'll focus on the support and resistance network of the market. Time has 2 components - Time, and Price - that make up every one of these time events. We can focus on the purely horizontal support and resistance levels of these markets, predicting where a move is most likely to go. In addition - and perhaps more accurately - we can see what the "hybrid" angle resistance lines are doing - hybrid lines being a dominant angle that represents that market's unique combination of time and price. Each market has a unique angle it follows, and the video will describe how to find those lines, and how to project movements out into the future using those lines.

The markets in our opinion are not random - in the sense that we can apply these types of predictive analyses to them using predictive market indicators. See how the ES analysis this one morning allows the moderator to call the high and the low of the day before the move occurs - and then watch with him and the students what happens an hour after predicting the market movements.

 

automate
May 23, 2017

Predictive analysis of the 6B Great British Pound futures instrument

Trading Insights
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I just recently concluded an analysis for a customer who was seeking to understand what the Great British pound Futures instrument he was trading might do into the future. In the video below I demonstrated several techniques that Traders can use when doing research into probabilities concerning how the market they trade is most likely to move long-term.

One of the first techniques I recommend Traders use, whether they are Futures Traders or Forex Traders or even equities Traders is to examine the seasonality of their instrument over several years. For example if you are studying an instrument in March it would be helpful to look at how that instrument moved in March over the past several years. New Traders are surprised to see that there are patterns in terms of price action that repeat year after year after year in the instrument that their trading.

Another useful technique involves measuring how far the moves during that seasonality occur. To see how far these moves occur during these seasonal impulse moves, how far that is to say how many ticks or how many Pips does the market actually move? In the video below you'll see that there are clearly repetitions of movement that is to say measured moves that are occurring quite frequently in the Great British pound the past several years.

We can also use a predictive indicator like the Flux daily cycle markers indicator for ninjatrader to help us anchor the patterns that were studying during these seasonal movements. The Flux daily marker indicator is particularly helpful as it provides anchor points, predictive anchor points for us to look at the movements during the seasonality we're examining and researching. Flux daily cycle markers indicate phase one, phase 2, phase 3, and Phase 4 market movements. What  the market does at each of these phases during the season we're examining can give us a clue as to where we are in the cycle and what to expect next at the upcoming date.

Watch the video and please leave comments below. I'm curious to see what you think about this analysis in one of the methods and techniques are useful to you as you study and analyze the market you're Trading

 

 

automate
May 18, 2017

A novel Ninjatrader Indicator for longer term swing trading Forex pairs, Futures, and Equities

Tags: , , Trading Insights
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Good morning and thank you for using this website in researching how to trade the pairs or instruments that you're trading. Every so often we come across customers are looking to make investments that last longer than a few minutes or a few hours. These customers can best be described as swing Traders, looking for positions that last anywhere from 3 to 7 days or longer.

We've been developing Ninjatrader indicators now for close to 10 years, and over the course of our development of indicators for people using ninjatrader or tradestation we've come across several tools that have the ability to predict knows that last this duration of time into the future. One such indicator for ninjatrader is the Flux Daily Cycle Markers indicator. Listen to cater is unique, because it tells you days into the future when one of four phases is going to arrive in the market that you're trading. There are four phases in total two of which implied buying pressure in the market two of which imply selling pressure in the market. A paragraph

This particular Ninjatrader indicator is exciting for customers like the one mentioned in this video I'm about to post below because it provides a platform for building a discretion free trading system that is entirely rules-based with stocks that are known ahead of time and target's that are based on times in the future as opposed to fixed targets. Having a time based target, as opposed to a fixed target, in many cases provides a profit that can exceed traditional lagging trail stops, or fixed targets based on platform trail stops like Tradestation, or Ninjatrader indicators.

Watch the video, and then leave comment or email me to understand more about how you can use predictive indicators as opposed to lagging indicators in the future when looking to place longer-term swing trades.

automate
April 19, 2017

Ninjatrader Indicators for studying Time-Price relationships

Trading Insights
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Via NinjaTrader indicators, I've been studying timing pack patterns in the markets now for over 10 years. When I first started out I didn't truly understand how little I actually knew about how timing patterns worked and popular instruments like the Futures Forex and equities markets. One of the things that I couldn't possibly have understood in the very beginning was the interrelationship between time and price. I seem to have a handle on how the timing patterns worked, noticing how prices were going up and down at projected future times, but I really didn't understand how price was associated with those times and how those price levels of the key timing patterns became support and resistance in the market. I'd come across various articles over the years that tried to explain it, but always felt like they fell short:

http://www.futuresmag.com/2012/04/30/gann-square-outs-time-and-price-balance-markets

No one had ever really developed a Ninjatrader indicator to help with this study, either.

In this video, I spend some time discussing the six laws of time resistance that I've been able to discover and forward implement in markets the e-mini S&P and various Forex pairs. I'd like you to spend some time going through each of the rules with me, and see for yourself in this video demonstration how those rules apply in this peculiar permutation of time and price. As of 2017 we're starting to understand that the markets are not purely time, purely price, what are rather a resonant interdependence of the two. Each market has a resonant angle -  a hybrid of time and price. I'll use this ninjatrader indicator to demonstrate the hybrid resident angle in the e-mini and in particular I'll show how the six laws of time resistance are functional on both a horizontal plane, as well as this hybrid resident angle plane. This powerful ninjatrader indicator also allows me to Anchor the spring pattern of the e-mini, and you'll see for yourself how we're still looking upwards towards a reproach of the former high back towards 2400.

To view the class, simply follow this web link to our YouTube Channel:

automate
February 15, 2017

The rise of the machines....Google enters the trading arena with it's proprietary TIME solution

Tags: , , Trading Insights
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There has been a steady increase in the use of computing power to give the financial institutions an even stronger edge and strangle hold over how markets are traded, and dominated by the one percent of wealth controllers in the world. With regards to how computers and developments like artificial intelligence are affecting how these institutional edges are growing, we have no farther to look than which technologies are being funded by the largest wealth holders.

One of the most advanced trading technology companies was recently pushed on to the world stage, when whistleblower Eric Snowden mentioned a company called "Palantir" in regards to his revelations that  US government agencies were leveraging techologies at the bleeding edge to collect metadata on Americans using their phones domestically. A closer look at Palantir however shows us that finance, technology - and governments are becoming increasingly strange bedfellows.

In this article, Forbes talks about Palantir - a mega powerful software package - and who is using it:"

"Well, for starters, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, with also one the most sophisticated quant teams, is an outspoken user of Metropolis - the new name for Palantir Finance....In financial analysis, Palantir Metropolis can provide the big-picture, collaborative structure, which allows sophisticated users to target their advanced quant deep dives more effectively."

The future of trading it seems, is no longer a mastery of technical indicators - the type of revolution we saw in the 90's and early 2000's. Now - it's about who controls the data.

Google - is now making it's global network of connected computer infrastructure available to financial institutions, in part because it has a unique and unparalleled ability to sync it's data around the world - to the same time - using GPS satellites. Listen to how important TIME is to that ability, in this article:

"No one else has ever built a system like this. No one else has taken hold of time in the same way. And now Google is offering this technology to the rest of the world as a cloud computing service. 

Google believes this can provide some added leverage in its battle with Microsoft and Amazon for supremacy in the increasingly important cloud computing market, just because Spanner is unique. And some agree. “If they offer it, people will want it, and people will use it,” says Peter Bailis, an assistant professor of computer science at Stanford University who specializes in massively distributed software systems."

They go on to tell us:

"The volume of data—and velocity with which that data is coming at us—is amplifying significantly,” says JDA group vice president John Sarvari.

Spanner could also be useful in the financial markets, allowing big banks to more efficiently track and synchronize trades happening across the planet. And Google says it’s already in talks with large financial institutions about this kind of thing. Traditionally, many banks were wary of handling trades in the cloud for reasons of security and privacy. But those attitudes are softening. A few years ago, Spanner was something only Google needed. Now, Google is banking on change.

It seems traders who are relying on the same paradigm of lagging technical indicators - beholden to the traditional regime of "trading room gurus" have ever increasing competition with an ever dwindling edge pool. Once Google unleashes the power of it's "Spanner" infrastructure - traders who are not using leading data mining indicators like the FLUX system of Ninjatrader indicators will find themselves at a severe disadvantage.

 

automate
December 16, 2014

Ninjatrader Indicators - using the Parabolic S.A.R. tool

Trading Insights
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I've been using NinjaTrader for close to 7 years now, and have been with them through all the ups and downs of 6, 6.5, and the many multiple versions of 7 that we've been given across the last few years. Each time we have a revision, there are more NinjaTrader indicators that come out or appear on the forums as people became more comfortable with the platform.

I'm a big fan of some of the tools that come out of the box from NinjaTrader...without ever having to purchase another tool from a 3rd party vendor. There are lots of great NinjaTrader indicator vendors, but some of the fundamentally most powerful tools come with the free tools in the standard default indicator list.

One of the tools we love most, is the Parabolic S.A.R. (stop and reverse) indicator. Mostly because Welles Wilder made it - and so far as we're concerned he's one of if not THE father of modern technical indicator analysis of the markets.

According to StockCharts.com, the Parabolic S.A.R Indicator has the following working definition:

"Developed by Welles Wilder, the Parabolic SAR refers to a price-and-time-based trading system. Wilder called this the “Parabolic Time/Price System.” SAR stands for “stop and reverse,” which is the actual indicator used in the system.SAR trails price as the trend extends over time. The indicator is below prices when prices are rising and above prices when prices are falling. In this regard, the indicator stops and reverses when the price trend reverses and breaks above or below the indicator."

I did a video for NinjaTrader's "Unplugged" video series that shows a really novel way of using this Ninjatrader indicator to identify trend entries. Traditionally, you might pair the SAR with an indicator called the A.D.X. and watch for strong enough trends to trade. I find using an Exponential Moving Average that changes color as the slope changes direction is almost as good, and easier to follow.

See if this makes sense as the start of a rules based trading plan:





If you'd like the template I created for this chart, and want to download the EMA Slope Color indicator for free, just go to our NinjaTrader Indicators "unplugged" page and let me know you want them. I'll send you a link to our DropBox and you can download it right to your Desktop.

It takes about 5 minutes, and works really well if you apply the Parabolic SAR to a range, or a tick bar in the market you're trading....remember, minute based bars can be whippy, and we lose the "structure" of the market that is much easier to see when using range, tick, or renko bars. Identifying trend entries - entries with a determined stop loss pain threshold can be really easy when you pair these two NinjaTrader indicators together like in the above example.

Click here to get the NinjaTrader Unplugged templates and indicators.

 

automate
December 10, 2014

Predictive indicators for NinjaTrader using data mining

Trading Insights
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I've been using NinjaTrader for close to 7 years now, and have been with them through all the ups and downs of 6, 6.5, and the many multiple versions of 7 that we've been given across the last few years. Each time we have a revision, there are more NinjaTrader indicators that come out or appear on the forums as people became more comfortable with the platform.

In the past 5 years, there has been a resurgence of interest in predictive indicators in light of several relatively uncontrollable factors. High frequency trading, large institutional manipulation, as well as trading algorithms have altered the trading landscape and really affected the way traditional technical indicators were originally designed. Things that you could have seen, easily - with say an RSI indicator or a MACD - even with Fibonacci retracements just don't work the same as they used to anymore.

Nial Fuller of LearnToTradeTheMarket.com has some great insights with regards to lagging versus leading indicators. He argues taht "Price action is the most clean and logical way to analyze and trade...", and that lagging indicators that were designed to follow price action are second hand delayed information versus first hand accounts of what was really happening.

I believe, and have observed, that we can take Nial's obserations one step further. And it really boils down to human psychology on several levels - psychology that makes designing predictive indicators much simpler, conceptually.

People do the same things, at the same times, over and over again. According to a groundbreaking study by Northeastern University, "Human behavior is 93 percent predictable".  Building predictive indicators for any market, citing the work of Distinguished Professor of Physics Albert-Laszlo Barbasi, becomes much easier. According to Barbasi, "Spontaneous individuals are largely absent from the population...". The paper's author Chaoming Song says, "...despite our heterogeneity, we are all almost equally predictable".

 

Historically, people have attempted to predict where the market's are going next - developing a predictive indicator - not taking human behavior patterns into consideration. Rather, they have traditionally focused on cycle theory. This idea centers on the concept of things like waves....sine waves for example. Detecting their presence in the market - identifying where in the cycle we currently are right now, and then extrapolating out into the future where we should be next with regards to price versus time. This idea of "anticipating turning points" was popularized by renowned technical indicator developer John Ehlers of MESA software fame.

Our Northeastern University studies would suggest, with regards to predictive indicator development - that analyzing human behavior patterns over time would be the best approach. If people are in fact 93% predictable, despite their observed diversity, those patterns should emerge in a way that we can observe and confirm.  We should be able to use a data set of predictions before a market opens, observe the behavior over the course of the market, and then see a clear pattern which exceeds a 50/50 coin toss with regards to the question, "what did we anticipate the market doing at these times?"

If you're day trading, start looking for these patterns in time with your charting software. Look for times of day where you notice things happening relatively consistently. If a time emerges as a pivot time, say 10:08 Eastern time....start going back several weeks and noticing what happens at that time. How many days was 10:08 a pivot time say in the last 10 trading days? This is the starting point towards understanding where some of these methodologies are right - and others of them are entirely wrong. As you start studying the markets with human pyschology - human predictability in mind, finding these times - marking them, and then waiting for the next repetition of movement at that time in the future becomes the clearest path.

automate
May 21, 2014

The best free Ninjatrader Indicators I've ever used

Trading Insights
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I've been using NinjaTrader for close to 7 years now, and have been with them through all the ups and downs of 6, 6.5, and the many multiple versions of 7 that we've been given across the last few years. Each time we have a revision, there are more NinjaTrader indicators that come out or appear on the forums as people became more comfortable with the platform.

I've really enjoyed how NinjaTrader indicators mimic Google or Apple "apps", in that the community is always growing with many valuable "apps"/indicators for NinjaTrader indicator users being free. Many are just only slightly better than what you get from the default NinjaTrader indicator list. But occaisionally, you come across one that makes your heart skip a little beat. That one indicator that has the potential to unlock that last little tumbler you've been looking for to help you get to the next level of your trading. The one you save on multiple hard drives so you won't lose it  - especially if the original author smartens up and takes it down off of the website.

For me, that one indicator was the "Divergent Input Series" indicator, written anonymously for the NinjaTrader community. The Divergent Input Series indicator - at first glance, is very normal, and very simple. Some of it's results are fairly ho hum, in fact. Most traders have been taught to look for divergence from their very earliest days of trading. Divergence, simply put, means if price is going down, and your other oscillating indicator is going up - you should fade the move. Or, if price is going up, and the secondary oscillator is going down, you should similarly fade the move.

Most people apply these types of indicators to standard things like MACD, RSI, or STOCHASTICS - indicators normally found in the NinjaTrader indicator default list. But when you get the Divergent Input Series indicator, you notice that you have access to EVERYTHING in the Ninjatrader Indicator list to reference as a secondary oscillator.

Here's an example of a typical MACD style divergence indicator for Ninjatrader:

Standard Divergence Indicators

Standard Divergence Indicators scan for highs and lows of price action to differ from the highs and lows of the oscillator

I've noticed that one of those tools works best, when applied to this tool - and it's not what anyone would ever usually think to apply. It's the "VOL" indicator from the NinjaTrader indicator drop down list. When you use these two things together - you essentially have a powerful volume spread analysis tool - for free. Most VSA programs cost upwards of a thousand, or two thousand dollars. Their job is to show you when volume is doing something different, relative to price action.

Most analysts would agree that volume spread analysis is one of the only PREDICTIVE indicators around. Volume divergence generally PRECEDES the move, or the reversal, as insitutional traders are buying INTO the low, or selling INTO the high, to get the best price. Here's a screenshot of what this tool looks like on the Emini S&P (it works best on range, tick, and volume bar types....good on minute bars, but better on "non-time" based bars):

Divergent Input Series

Divergent Input Series on Emini S&P 3 range chart, with free "Ema Slope Color" indicator for trend determination

Simple strategies work better than complex ones

When using this tool, I like to turn the "show swings parameter" to "False". I lower the swing size values to a bare minimum - either a 1 before 1 after, or 2 before, 2 after - and that helps me see the pullbacks with trend. See, institutions will buy into lows to get the best price before the next run up - and that's when the green arrow appears. If you've ever seen a run away up day and sat there unprepared to trade it - you'll thank me later for this tool and this post. Similarly - on days when the market is falling like a hot rock, check what happens at the red arrow plots when the institutions are selling into highs:

Trade the red arrows

Trade the red arrows in the direction of the red trend at volume divergent reversals....

As you can see - when you're filtering against trend, you find virtually every "peak pullback" before the hammer comes down - or before the next launch up as the institutions sell or buy into the pullback. See, you can't "hide" volume. It's one of the purest, most predictive tools you can watch - and when analyzed against price action becomes a deadly leading predictive indicator.

I've uploaded the indicator file, along with the template you need to recreate the charts I've created here in a Dropbox download link. I put it in the area of our website we call "NinjaTrader Unplugged" where we give away indicators and templates that help traders do more with their base platform - using standard and free NinjaTrader indicators to help them get their trading up off the ground.

To get the indicator, and the template files with my settings, simply click here:

NINJATRADER INDICATORS UNPLUGGED

If you have any questions about this indicator, or the template files I've uploaded, you can email me at michael@backtothefuturetrading.com, or hit me up on Skype, at "Integra-Michael". Let me know how you like the tool, and if you use it successfully in your trading!