Trading Insights

Trading Insights

What's the big deal about WD Gann?

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W.D. Gann, also known as William Delbert Gann, was a financial trader, analyst and author who lived in the early 20th century. He is widely considered to be one of the most successful traders of his time, and his methods and theories are still studied and used by traders today.

Gann's primary focus was on market forecasting using geometric angles and time cycles. He believed that the movements of financial markets could be predicted using mathematical and geometric principles. He developed a number of techniques for analyzing charts, including the use of angles, which he believed revealed the underlying trend of the market. He also used time cycles to predict market turning points, and believed that certain dates were more significant than others in the market's movements.

Gann also placed a strong emphasis on the importance of understanding the fundamentals of the markets, and believed that a trader should have a deep understanding of the underlying economic and political factors that drive market movements. He believed that the most important factors in determining market movements were supply and demand, interest rates, and the overall state of the economy.

One of Gann's most famous contributions to trading analysis is the "Square of Nine," also known as the "Square of 144." This is a geometric chart that Gann developed, which he believed could be used to predict market movements. The chart is based on the number 9, which Gann believed had special significance in the markets. He believed that the Square of Nine could be used to identify key levels of support and resistance in the markets, and that it could be used to predict market turning points.

Gann's methods and theories were not without controversy, and some traders and analysts have criticized them for being overly complex and difficult to apply in practice. However, many traders still find value in his work, and Gann's methods continue to be studied and used by traders and analysts today.

Gann's work has also influenced many other traders and analysts in the field, including Ralph Elliott, who developed the Elliott wave theory, which is based on the idea that market movements are fractal and repetitive in nature. Gann's work also influenced other trading gurus like R.N. Elliott, and W.D Gann's work is considered as a foundation of the technical analysis.

In conclusion, W.D. Gann was a pioneering trader, analyst, and author of the 20th century whose methods and theories are still studied and used by traders today. His focus on market forecasting using geometric angles, time cycles and understanding the fundamentals of the markets, has been a great contribution to the field of trading analysis. Despite some criticism, Gann's work continues to be studied and used by traders and analysts today and his work has also influenced many other traders and analysts in the field.

Overcoming the emotional stress of trading

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Traders, whether they are trading stocks, currencies, or any other financial instruments, must learn to control their emotions if they want to be successful. This is because emotions can often cloud judgment and lead to poor decision making, which can be costly in the fast-paced world of trading.
 
One way for traders to control their emotions is through the use of risk management techniques. This includes setting clear and defined risk limits for each trade, as well as having a solid trading plan in place that outlines the steps to be taken in various market conditions. By having a plan and sticking to it, traders can remove some of the emotional decision making from the equation and rely on a more systematic approach. We're amazed, after being in business for over 13 years. When we ask people to show us a copy of their trading plan, on average fewer than 5% of people we meet who describe themselves as day traders have an actual physical written out trading plan with any type of a statistical edge. Most people are 'shooting from the hip' and basing trades on 'in the moment' decisions that fail quite often. 
 
Another way to control emotions is through mindfulness and self-awareness. Traders should take the time to recognize and understand their own emotions and how they may be affecting their decision making. This can be done through mindfulness practices such as meditation, which can help traders gain clarity and focus, as well as through self-reflection and journaling. We have many customers who will actually monitor their emotions and ask themselves each day before they trade 'how do I feel?' They measure themselves objectively (physically and mentally) and rate their wellbeing. If they are less than a 7, they will only trade in SIM that day. They build in this emotional/physical 'circuit breaker' to make sure they're only trading when they are mentally optimal, and not prone to self sabotage that day. 
 
Traders should also be aware of their own biases and try to avoid letting them influence their trades. This includes avoiding overconfidence, which can lead to overtrading, as well as avoiding the sunk cost fallacy, which is the tendency to continue investing in a losing trade in the hopes of recouping losses. Instead, traders should focus on the potential future returns of a trade rather than the past performance or emotions associated with it.
 
It is also important for traders to remember that they cannot control the market, and it is important to accept this reality. Trying to fight the market or hold onto a losing trade can lead to emotional decision making and ultimately result in further losses. Instead, traders should focus on controlling their own actions and making decisions based on logical analysis and their trading plan. One of the reasons we developed our predictive software - was based completely on this idea. By understanding that markets had an element of institutional 'manipulation', we are able to study what is likely to happen in the future, versus fighting the market and trading it the way we would like it to go. 
 
To further control their emotions, traders can also seek the support of a mentor or a trading community. Having someone to discuss trades and strategies with can help traders gain perspective and avoid making emotional decisions in the heat of the moment. It can also be helpful to have a support network of fellow traders who can provide guidance and encouragement.
 
In summary, controlling emotions is crucial for traders in order to make sound and profitable decisions. This can be achieved through risk management techniques, mindfulness and self-awareness, avoiding biases, accepting market realities, and seeking support from mentors or trading communities. By learning to control their emotions, traders can improve their chances of success in the fast-paced and often volatile world of trading.
 
 
 
 

Why do new traders fail so often?

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There are several reasons why most retail traders lose money in the stock market. One of the main reasons is that many retail traders do not have a good understanding of the markets and how they work. They may lack the knowledge, experience, and discipline needed to make informed trading decisions. This can lead them to make costly mistakes, such as buying or selling at the wrong time or investing in risky assets.

Another reason why many retail traders lose money is that they often trade on emotions, rather than following a disciplined trading strategy. This can cause them to make impulsive decisions that are not based on solid analysis, which can result in significant losses. One of the most powerful resources for many of our customers in this area, has been a book written by trading psychologist, Mark Douglas. In his book, "Trading in the Zone", Douglas forces traders to closely examine this psychological element of their trading. Many of our customers read his book once a quarter as to remind themselves that trading is really a numbers game - exploiting a statistically relevant edge over time. 

Furthermore, the stock market can be unpredictable, and even the most experienced traders can sometimes make mistakes or encounter unexpected events that result in losses. This is why it is important for retail traders to carefully manage their risks and not invest more money than they can afford to lose.

Overall, the combination of a lack of knowledge and experience, emotional trading, and the inherent unpredictability of the stock market can make it difficult for retail traders to consistently make profitable trades. We believe our predictive indicators for futures, forex, and equities traders can assist with many of these problems early on - giving traders a psychological edge with simple rules based systems with signals they know are coming in the future which reduces psychological anxiety. 

Contact us today if you'd like more information about our 4.9 star rated software and training programs. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures

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The Emini Dow Jones gave us the possibility to get exposed to the 30 of the largest companies in the U.S. Representing a portion of the standard Dow Jones Industrial Average futures, these E-mini products allow us to short the index without stock loans or variable fees.

The Emini Dow Jones is one of my favorites in the future market because of its predictable behavior. Using the predictive software “WARP” in one minute chart, I enjoy my first 1 or 2 hours of trading because the patterns based on time that the software gave me in advance are really accurate.

Today in the New York session, at the opening, we have the retail sales report and the industrial production report. I check my calendar expecting that the volatility increases in those periods of time.

The first buying trade is shown at 8:39, the candle closes over the 120 EMA, I prefer that the candle close above the 120 EMA but is a valid trade, after that you can close the trade at 8:48 am.

A Candle closed above the 120 EMA with a timestamp under it it’s a buy pattern. A Candle closed below the 120 EMA with a timestamp above it it’s a sell pattern.

The second trade is another technique called crossover and is activated when the candle crosses below the 120 EMA at 8:50 am. You open the sell entry and hold it until 9:06 am. That was a great trade. Notice that the trade occurs during the news, but with the Warp predictive software, the entry and the exit of the trade were known 2 days ago.

The third trade is another sell pattern from 9:12 am until 9:24 am with a positive result. The last, the fourth one, is another sell trade with a stop out.

There you have it. 1.5 hours of trading with 4 trades. 3 trades won and 1 lost.

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam

 

Learn to Read Your Charts

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One of the advantages of using Warp predictive software is that the dots are always there when the time has gone. If you want to study a past trade day you can do it, also in replay mode in Ninjatrader 8. This is a good technique to understand the patterns and correlation between them and the price market. The behavior of the candles and their closed position when a dot is above or below that event

Here is my chart, I Have the Emini Nasdaq 100 in 3 minutes. You can make the same analysis in any timeframe because Warp predictive software is based on time, and we just follow some rules and watch the timestamp that appears with the dot. The chart below explains the moment of the entry and the exact time of the exit following one simple rule:

  • Watch the price if is above or below the 120 EMA, when a dot appears open a trade when the candle is closed and close the trade in the next timestamp when the time expires.

These basic rules have more than the 60% of probability in a standard setup. Based on the volatility the risk for each trade for the Nasdaq could be between 30 to 50 ticks per trade.

These are the results of 1 hour of trading

The trade 1: +28 Ticks

The trade 2: +79,25 Ticks

The trade 3: -27,25 Ticks

The trade 4: +20,25 Ticks

Total of ticks: + 107,Ticks

107 Potential Ticks in 1 hour of trading make the difference!

When you understand these concepts, your trading starts to be consistent in time. And this is just 1 rule.

 

 

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam

 

Trade Dow Jones in 5 minutes Chart

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Sometimes before the New York session, you can find good entries. Using Warp predictive software always is easy to find the correct areas where the market could give you good profits. Always study and know the market you trade, not all the instruments have the same behavior.

One of my favorites is the Dow Jones, I trade the instrument 3 years ago daily, and today I validate a 5 minute entry. I wait until the candle closes under the 120 EMA.

I open a trade with 4 contracts with a sell limit order. That means that after the big blue candle closes, I put the sell order limit at 50% of it. I want that the price reaches my limit order in a pullback. Note that my stop loss is above the candle that crosses the 120 ema 20 minutes before.

I cover my 2 first positions and move my stop loss at the point of break even. My idea is to hold my positions until the next timestamp. (8:35 am), or reach the orange dotted line, that I identify as a big support. You can include any technique to warp software! I like price action.

In a big movement during the opening New York session my level was reached, and closed my last two positions.

I closed the day with $670, almost before the opening, that its ok for me

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam

 

Nasdaq – First week of the year

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We end the year and have started the first week of the Year.

When I use my predictive software called Warp, y also like to check the global news just to expect more volatility at those times. Take note that a lot of traders are out resting, and you could expect lower movements. But I always came back after my vacation, and I like to trade this week.

I trade the New York Session. And today I trade the Emini Nasdaq following 2 simple rules:

  • Sell if a red dot appears after 8:30 am and the price is under the 120 EMA and
  • Close the trade in the next green timestamp when the time expires

I use 4 contracts to open the trade, and I like to take partial profits with my first 2 contracts, the third one is a 1:2 profit risk-reward ratio if possible. The third one I like to run and see how far it could go. At 8:39 I open my trade and wait. My stop loss is on the red line defined by the 8:39 timestamp.

The first 2 contracts were covered

Interfaz de usuario gráfica  Descripción generada automáticamente

I move my stop loss at the point of break-even + 2 ticks

Interfaz de usuario gráfica  Descripción generada automáticamente

And start to draw in my chart the reversal point line. It helps me to remind me that above that point the trade could have space to “breath” and could end the movement

Captura de pantalla de computadora  Descripción generada automáticamente

When I see the big candle, I move the stop loss at the middle of it

Interfaz de usuario gráfica  Descripción generada automáticamente

The price came back and close my trade. I think I move it too earlier

Captura de pantalla de computadora  Descripción generada automáticamente

You can see that at 8:57 am the time expires, and the closed candle was near the same level where the price stops me out. You could hold the 4 contracts at 8:57 am time stamp, that’s your decision, I like to split the contracts, and cover them partially.

Interfaz de usuario gráfica  Descripción generada automáticamente

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam

 

TRADING BITCOIN WITH WARP PREDICTIVE SOFTWARE

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When you choose an instrument to trade using warp predictive software you have the capability to adjust different parameters to achieve the best setup of your preference. Warp predictive software has a manual who describes different patterns to execute approved entries and how to define that setup. The chart you see below is the Bitcoin in 1 minute and I follow the rules described in that manual. Warp is a time-based software, so, we use time expiration what it means the candle is closed when you take actions.

The first entry move appears when the price “puncture” down the green line at 8:31 timestamp, the SL is above that candle 1 tick, and you can:

  • Take profits 1:1 or 2:1 or
  • Wait and hold the position until 9:03 am and close all your positions

The second trade is at 9:03 am, the SL is above that candle 1 tick, and you can:

  • Take partial profits 1:1 or 2:1 or 3:1 or
  • Wait and hold the position until 9:19 am and close all your positions

The Entry number 3 is at 9:33 am, the SL is above that candle 1 tick, and you can:

  • Take partial profits 1:1 or 2:1 or 3:1 or
  • Wait and hold the position until 10:22 am and close all your positions

I like to take partial profits its my personal style of trading, but with WARP you have the confidence to hold the positions until the time expires in the next timestamp. It’s up to you to define your risk management in your style of trading.

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam

 

UNDERSTANDING THE PATTERN 2 IN DOW JONES

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Warp predictive software have a manual who describes different patterns to execute approved entries. Today we are going to analyze the Pattern number 2 in Dow Jones. These are the rules for that pattern:

  • The trade is activated when the candle closes at the specific time stamp in the chosen timeframe shown by Warp predictive software.
  • The closed candle is above the 120 EMA
  • The stop loss is below the ATR line plotted by the timestamp, 1 tick under

I open this trade with 4 contracts at 8:42, a little bit late but checking the last rules is valid. My stop loss initially is under the green line, plotted by the 8:42 timestamp. I move the stop loss at point of break-even + 2, because there are already more than 15 ticks of profit.

I like to take partial profits, or you can hold the trade until 9:03. The yellow line is a swing high that you can´t see in the picture, so, I move my first 2 contracts under that line to cover that position. I use a line or an arrow (Yellow) to measure the first “swing” and predict with the same size the second leg, and I wait and cover the first 2 contracts.

Interfaz de usuario gráfica  Descripción generada automáticamente

After that, when the candle closes at 9:03 I move the stop loss under it.

The next 3 minutes the price stops me out.

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam

 

UNDERSTANDING THE PATTERN 5 IN NASDAQ

Trading Insights
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When I purchase WARP, predictive software, I have two main objectives.

The first one two reduce my indecision to opening trades and the second one when to close the open trade. There are different techniques you can apply to reach those goals, and are based in your account balance, appetite to risk, and number of contracts used.

It’s important to understand the way this predictive software works. Therefore, you have a manual for that, a pdf file that explain the system.

When I start trading with this software y just focused on easy patterns above or below the 120 EMA, it means buy and sell, if the dot timestamp signal appears above or below the EMA. I become an expert to know when to open and close the trades based on times. But today I want to explain an advanced pattern, and it’s the pattern 5. You can get good entries with a reduced stop loss if you understand it.

In the picture the first trade appears after 8:29, the time ends, the red (ATR) level is drawn and the candle in minute 31 make a puncture over passing and closing over the red line validating the long trade. But in Nasdaq I like to open trades after 3 or 4 minutes after the opening bell, so I avoid that trade, is just my preference. So, my next time stamp it’s at 8:36. It’s a buying dot but, I do not open the trade under these criteria:

  • The bars at the left of the dot, are making higher highs
  • The candle that closes at 8:36 make a new higher high

The concept is simple, and I follow the next steps in my mind to open the trade:

  1. Wait that the candle closes and start to be drawing the ATR dotted line (in green)
  2. Option one: put a buy limit 1 tick above the green dotted line, if is activated I put my stop loss below the EMA or in the last swing low at my left
  3. Option two: The “U” turn shape. Wait until one buying candle appears and close above the green line and activate the trade manually, the stop loss is under that candle or in the last swing low at my left.

If you have just one contract you can:

  • Take profits in the last high at your left
  • Or move your stop loss under the medium candle the crosses the reversal high and hold it until 8:56

I trade with 4 contracts:

  • My first two contracts are covered in the reversal line
  • I move my Stop loss under the last swing low (when says “partial profit” in the picture.
  • Move the stop loss under the closed candle at 8:56 am and get stopped out.

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam