Trading Insights

Trading Insights

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures

Trading Insights
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The Emini Dow Jones gave us the possibility to get exposed to the 30 of the largest companies in the U.S. Representing a portion of the standard Dow Jones Industrial Average futures, these E-mini products allow us to short the index without stock loans or variable fees.

The Emini Dow Jones is one of my favorites in the future market because of its predictable behavior. Using the predictive software “WARP” in one minute chart, I enjoy my first 1 or 2 hours of trading because the patterns based on time that the software gave me in advance are really accurate.

Today in the New York session, at the opening, we have the retail sales report and the industrial production report. I check my calendar expecting that the volatility increases in those periods of time.

The first buying trade is shown at 8:39, the candle closes over the 120 EMA, I prefer that the candle close above the 120 EMA but is a valid trade, after that you can close the trade at 8:48 am.

A Candle closed above the 120 EMA with a timestamp under it it’s a buy pattern. A Candle closed below the 120 EMA with a timestamp above it it’s a sell pattern.

The second trade is another technique called crossover and is activated when the candle crosses below the 120 EMA at 8:50 am. You open the sell entry and hold it until 9:06 am. That was a great trade. Notice that the trade occurs during the news, but with the Warp predictive software, the entry and the exit of the trade were known 2 days ago.

The third trade is another sell pattern from 9:12 am until 9:24 am with a positive result. The last, the fourth one, is another sell trade with a stop out.

There you have it. 1.5 hours of trading with 4 trades. 3 trades won and 1 lost.

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam

 

Learn to Read Your Charts

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One of the advantages of using Warp predictive software is that the dots are always there when the time has gone. If you want to study a past trade day you can do it, also in replay mode in Ninjatrader 8. This is a good technique to understand the patterns and correlation between them and the price market. The behavior of the candles and their closed position when a dot is above or below that event

Here is my chart, I Have the Emini Nasdaq 100 in 3 minutes. You can make the same analysis in any timeframe because Warp predictive software is based on time, and we just follow some rules and watch the timestamp that appears with the dot. The chart below explains the moment of the entry and the exact time of the exit following one simple rule:

  • Watch the price if is above or below the 120 EMA, when a dot appears open a trade when the candle is closed and close the trade in the next timestamp when the time expires.

These basic rules have more than the 60% of probability in a standard setup. Based on the volatility the risk for each trade for the Nasdaq could be between 30 to 50 ticks per trade.

These are the results of 1 hour of trading

The trade 1: +28 Ticks

The trade 2: +79,25 Ticks

The trade 3: -27,25 Ticks

The trade 4: +20,25 Ticks

Total of ticks: + 107,Ticks

107 Potential Ticks in 1 hour of trading make the difference!

When you understand these concepts, your trading starts to be consistent in time. And this is just 1 rule.

 

 

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam

 

Trade Dow Jones in 5 minutes Chart

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Sometimes before the New York session, you can find good entries. Using Warp predictive software always is easy to find the correct areas where the market could give you good profits. Always study and know the market you trade, not all the instruments have the same behavior.

One of my favorites is the Dow Jones, I trade the instrument 3 years ago daily, and today I validate a 5 minute entry. I wait until the candle closes under the 120 EMA.

I open a trade with 4 contracts with a sell limit order. That means that after the big blue candle closes, I put the sell order limit at 50% of it. I want that the price reaches my limit order in a pullback. Note that my stop loss is above the candle that crosses the 120 ema 20 minutes before.

I cover my 2 first positions and move my stop loss at the point of break even. My idea is to hold my positions until the next timestamp. (8:35 am), or reach the orange dotted line, that I identify as a big support. You can include any technique to warp software! I like price action.

In a big movement during the opening New York session my level was reached, and closed my last two positions.

I closed the day with $670, almost before the opening, that its ok for me

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam

 

Nasdaq – First week of the year

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We end the year and have started the first week of the Year.

When I use my predictive software called Warp, y also like to check the global news just to expect more volatility at those times. Take note that a lot of traders are out resting, and you could expect lower movements. But I always came back after my vacation, and I like to trade this week.

I trade the New York Session. And today I trade the Emini Nasdaq following 2 simple rules:

  • Sell if a red dot appears after 8:30 am and the price is under the 120 EMA and
  • Close the trade in the next green timestamp when the time expires

I use 4 contracts to open the trade, and I like to take partial profits with my first 2 contracts, the third one is a 1:2 profit risk-reward ratio if possible. The third one I like to run and see how far it could go. At 8:39 I open my trade and wait. My stop loss is on the red line defined by the 8:39 timestamp.

The first 2 contracts were covered

Interfaz de usuario gráfica  Descripción generada automáticamente

I move my stop loss at the point of break-even + 2 ticks

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And start to draw in my chart the reversal point line. It helps me to remind me that above that point the trade could have space to “breath” and could end the movement

Captura de pantalla de computadora  Descripción generada automáticamente

When I see the big candle, I move the stop loss at the middle of it

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The price came back and close my trade. I think I move it too earlier

Captura de pantalla de computadora  Descripción generada automáticamente

You can see that at 8:57 am the time expires, and the closed candle was near the same level where the price stops me out. You could hold the 4 contracts at 8:57 am time stamp, that’s your decision, I like to split the contracts, and cover them partially.

Interfaz de usuario gráfica  Descripción generada automáticamente

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam

 

TRADING BITCOIN WITH WARP PREDICTIVE SOFTWARE

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When you choose an instrument to trade using warp predictive software you have the capability to adjust different parameters to achieve the best setup of your preference. Warp predictive software has a manual who describes different patterns to execute approved entries and how to define that setup. The chart you see below is the Bitcoin in 1 minute and I follow the rules described in that manual. Warp is a time-based software, so, we use time expiration what it means the candle is closed when you take actions.

The first entry move appears when the price “puncture” down the green line at 8:31 timestamp, the SL is above that candle 1 tick, and you can:

  • Take profits 1:1 or 2:1 or
  • Wait and hold the position until 9:03 am and close all your positions

The second trade is at 9:03 am, the SL is above that candle 1 tick, and you can:

  • Take partial profits 1:1 or 2:1 or 3:1 or
  • Wait and hold the position until 9:19 am and close all your positions

The Entry number 3 is at 9:33 am, the SL is above that candle 1 tick, and you can:

  • Take partial profits 1:1 or 2:1 or 3:1 or
  • Wait and hold the position until 10:22 am and close all your positions

I like to take partial profits its my personal style of trading, but with WARP you have the confidence to hold the positions until the time expires in the next timestamp. It’s up to you to define your risk management in your style of trading.

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam

 

UNDERSTANDING THE PATTERN 2 IN DOW JONES

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Warp predictive software have a manual who describes different patterns to execute approved entries. Today we are going to analyze the Pattern number 2 in Dow Jones. These are the rules for that pattern:

  • The trade is activated when the candle closes at the specific time stamp in the chosen timeframe shown by Warp predictive software.
  • The closed candle is above the 120 EMA
  • The stop loss is below the ATR line plotted by the timestamp, 1 tick under

I open this trade with 4 contracts at 8:42, a little bit late but checking the last rules is valid. My stop loss initially is under the green line, plotted by the 8:42 timestamp. I move the stop loss at point of break-even + 2, because there are already more than 15 ticks of profit.

I like to take partial profits, or you can hold the trade until 9:03. The yellow line is a swing high that you can´t see in the picture, so, I move my first 2 contracts under that line to cover that position. I use a line or an arrow (Yellow) to measure the first “swing” and predict with the same size the second leg, and I wait and cover the first 2 contracts.

Interfaz de usuario gráfica  Descripción generada automáticamente

After that, when the candle closes at 9:03 I move the stop loss under it.

The next 3 minutes the price stops me out.

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam

 

UNDERSTANDING THE PATTERN 5 IN NASDAQ

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When I purchase WARP, predictive software, I have two main objectives.

The first one two reduce my indecision to opening trades and the second one when to close the open trade. There are different techniques you can apply to reach those goals, and are based in your account balance, appetite to risk, and number of contracts used.

It’s important to understand the way this predictive software works. Therefore, you have a manual for that, a pdf file that explain the system.

When I start trading with this software y just focused on easy patterns above or below the 120 EMA, it means buy and sell, if the dot timestamp signal appears above or below the EMA. I become an expert to know when to open and close the trades based on times. But today I want to explain an advanced pattern, and it’s the pattern 5. You can get good entries with a reduced stop loss if you understand it.

In the picture the first trade appears after 8:29, the time ends, the red (ATR) level is drawn and the candle in minute 31 make a puncture over passing and closing over the red line validating the long trade. But in Nasdaq I like to open trades after 3 or 4 minutes after the opening bell, so I avoid that trade, is just my preference. So, my next time stamp it’s at 8:36. It’s a buying dot but, I do not open the trade under these criteria:

  • The bars at the left of the dot, are making higher highs
  • The candle that closes at 8:36 make a new higher high

The concept is simple, and I follow the next steps in my mind to open the trade:

  1. Wait that the candle closes and start to be drawing the ATR dotted line (in green)
  2. Option one: put a buy limit 1 tick above the green dotted line, if is activated I put my stop loss below the EMA or in the last swing low at my left
  3. Option two: The “U” turn shape. Wait until one buying candle appears and close above the green line and activate the trade manually, the stop loss is under that candle or in the last swing low at my left.

If you have just one contract you can:

  • Take profits in the last high at your left
  • Or move your stop loss under the medium candle the crosses the reversal high and hold it until 8:56

I trade with 4 contracts:

  • My first two contracts are covered in the reversal line
  • I move my Stop loss under the last swing low (when says “partial profit” in the picture.
  • Move the stop loss under the closed candle at 8:56 am and get stopped out.

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam

Emini ES – Range at Opening Bell

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As a user of Time Warp Software, I always expected that my timestamp signals for my daily trade sessions are organized and give me great moves, specially at the beginning of the opening bell market.

The most difficult types of markets that you can find are the range markets, because you will have a sequence of inverted patterns, or the markets does not move so far as you wish or see past days, or you must avoid some entries. Understand the patterns and the technique of the predictive Warp Software could help you to save the day.

In the chart I have a selling pressure signal at 8:59 but the candle closes in the 120 EMA. The time stamp defines his red dot line (Based on the ATR of the moment), and when I see a big blue candle closing below the 120 EMA, I open the Trade.

I make the mistake to leave my first profit target below the green ATR line of the 8:45 time stamp. I must put it above. That cost me that for just 1 Tick I can not grab or close my first 2 contracts and must wait almost 25 minutes. Let see.

Because the price pullback now I have to:

  1. Close all positions at 9:16, that could have minimum loss
  2. Leave the stop loss at the actual position and try to reach the last low at my left
  3. Wait until 9:24 timestamp closed candle, wait that the line green appears, and see if a “punchure” of that level could occur.

I wait for the third option but:

  • The 9:24 timestamp was a buy pattern. I did not take it cause the candles in 30 minutes of trading never crossed the last highs levels
  • And I have and open trade already

I cover my first 2 contracts after 25 minutes waiting

  • I let the price run and tight my stop level when cross the 9:24 level
  • Then I cover the third contract

Move my stop loss above the next ATR level until the price stops me out

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam

 

Gold – Thanksgiving Week

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We are starting the thanksgiving week. For today trading session I have selected the Gold Futures contract. When i have an extended move before the opening, I like to wait to trade the pullback after the 8:30. To be sure to find the right spot I read the time stamp signals that Warp predictive software gave to me in advance. With my actual setup i see a potential selling signal at 8:45. Because the last bullish leg is so deep, I wait a few candles after the candles closes at 8:45 and I DON’T open the trade. The price cross and touch the ATR level (line in red), appears a bearish candle that a called “1st attempt” for the sellers, and the “2nd attempt” the candle close below the ATR level and I open the trade. I do this because I want to be sure that the sellers are going to try to retest the last low. The first target is reached.

I move my stop loss at point of entry plus 1 tick and use the ATR level of the 8:19 time stamp as a point of support. My third contract is above that level.

For the last contract you can try to reach the last lower low or, wait until the candle closes at 9:04

When time ends at 9:04 I move my stop loss above that candle and leave it. You never know if the price can cross the ART level of the 9:04 timestamp.

The price stops me out I reach my personal profit target and the day it’s over for me.

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogotá-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam

 

Emini – NASDAQ - NQ

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For today's trading session I selected the Emini Nasdaq. Before the opening, and with my setup for Warp predictive software, the timestamps show me bearish potential price action. I like to wait sometimes until the minute 33 when the price action is extended or not near the 120 EMA (Blue), like in this morning

Look the timestamp at 8:30 (The most volatile time) shows me a P2 pattern. It means the I am authorized by the rules of this trading predictive system to open a selling trade. Red dot under the 120 EMA. But as I said after the opening, I like to wait a few minutes to read the candles. So, a violent candle crossover the 120 EMA at minute 33 and I take my first trade, my stop loss is at the 50% of the candle, or in the red line of the 8:30 time stamp. My first 2 contracts are covered (1:1 Risk/Reward Ratio), and I move my SL at point of break even.

I look at my left and take profits below the next swing high.

I want to cover my last contract at 8:39, but in my experience with the Nasdaq I always trail my stop with the big candles

At this moment I made more than $2K in 6 minutes of trading.

If you want to continue just wait until the next signal. In this case with the bullish runaway, I expected a deeper pullback. At 8:50 there is a buying pressure signal, but I wait the “U” turn, that means that after connect an countertrend line (Cyan color), I reduce my position, wait that the level (green line) is tested, and open the trade and grab other $400 with one contract

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogota-Colombia

Spanish – Support

Skype: juanvegam