Tag futures

Tag futures

automate
April 19, 2024

Trading during wartime.

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While conflicts in the Middle East often introduce volatility into futures markets, traders can employ various strategies to potentially profit from these situations:

1. **Oil Futures**: Middle East conflicts frequently impact global oil markets, leading to price fluctuations in oil futures contracts. Traders can capitalize on these movements by taking long or short positions in crude oil futures, depending on their analysis of supply disruptions, geopolitical developments, and market sentiment.

2. **Defense Stocks**: Increased military spending during conflicts can benefit companies in the defense sector. Traders may consider investing in defense stocks or options contracts of companies that manufacture weapons, military equipment, or provide security services, anticipating a rise in their stock prices.

3. **Safe-Haven Assets**: During times of geopolitical uncertainty, traders often flock to safe-haven assets such as gold, government bonds, or currencies like the Swiss franc or Japanese yen. Traders can allocate a portion of their portfolio to these assets as a hedge against market volatility and geopolitical risk.

4. **Volatility Trading**: Heightened uncertainty during Middle East conflicts can lead to increased market volatility. Traders can use volatility derivatives such as VIX futures or options to profit from fluctuations in market volatility, employing strategies like straddles or strangles to capitalize on expected price swings.

5. **Geopolitical Analysis**: In addition to technical and fundamental analysis, traders can incorporate geopolitical analysis into their trading strategies. Staying informed about geopolitical developments, military actions, and diplomatic relations in the Middle East can help traders anticipate market movements and adjust their positions accordingly.

It's essential for traders to conduct thorough research, manage risk effectively, and remain disciplined in their trading approach when navigating geopolitical events. While conflicts in the Middle East can present trading opportunities, they also carry inherent risks, and traders should carefully assess their risk tolerance and investment objectives before executing trades. You can also use our customer acclaimed predictive timing software - like our Tacheon Warp program - to watch for the predictive times that these highly volatile markets are likely to move at in the future. 

automate
January 16, 2024

Are recessions predictable? Looking down the rabbit hole...

Tags: , , , , Trading Insights
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As a middle-aged American who's witnessed the ebb and flow of economic tides most of my adult life, delving into the predictability of recessions becomes even more intriguing when you consider the historical data. Over the past century, on average, recessions have made their appearance approximately every eight to ten years. It's like a familiar dance – a rhythm that's been playing out in the background of our financial history. The kind of rhythm we see every day with our predictive signals using programs like Tacheon Warp to project where popular futures, forex, stocks, and crypto markets are headed in advance like WD Gann did 150+ years ago. 

Picture it: a century's worth of economic ups and downs, each recession separated by this predictable timeframe. It's not just a coincidence; it's a pattern etched into the economic landscape. Economists, armed with data spanning decades, scrutinize various factors – interest rates, consumer spending, global trade dynamics, and government policies – to unravel the complexities of this cyclical phenomenon.

Understanding this historical context provides us with a valuable perspective. It turns out that recessions are not just random storms; there's a certain regularity to their occurrence. It's akin to an economic heartbeat, pulsating every eight to ten years, signaling the inevitable downturn.

Learning from the past becomes crucial in this context. By analyzing previous recessions and deciphering the contributing factors, we gain insights that empower us to prepare for the future. It's not about predicting the exact moment a recession will strike, but rather recognizing the signs and adjusting our financial sails before the economic winds turn turbulent.

So, here we stand, in the midst of a century-long cycle of economic rhythms. As a middle-aged observer who's weathered a few storms, there's a sense of awe in acknowledging this recurring pattern. Recessions may be an unavoidable part of our financial journey, but armed with historical knowledge, we can navigate these cycles with resilience and emerge stronger on the other side.

automate
August 9, 2023

NinjaTrader, the most powerful trading platform

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Unveiling the Power of NinjaTrader:  Predictive Futures Trading with Back to the Future Indicators

In the ever-evolving world of futures trading, staying ahead of the curve is essential for success. Amidst the myriad of trading platforms available, the dynamic duo of NinjaTrader and the forward-looking indicators from Back to the Future Trading has emerged as a true game-changer. This potent combination provides traders with an unparalleled advantage, enabling them to predict market movements and execute strategies with precision.

Cutting-Edge Technology: At the core of NinjaTrader's brilliance lies its state-of-the-art technology. When paired with the predictive indicators from Back to the Future Trading, this synergy empowers traders, whether seasoned or novice, to navigate the complexities of futures trading with ease. What sets this combination apart is the predictive nature of these indicators – a feature that enables traders to anticipate market shifts in real-time, allowing for informed decisions that are a step ahead of the competition.

Customization and Flexibility: NinjaTrader's adaptability, in tandem with the predictive indicators from Back to the Future Trading, offers traders a personalized trading environment. By tailoring their workspace using NinjaTrader's features and layouts and integrating the predictive indicators seamlessly, traders can align their strategies precisely with their preferences. This level of customization ensures maximum productivity and laser-focused trading approaches.

Powerful Charting Tools: The marriage of NinjaTrader's advanced charting capabilities with the forward-looking indicators from Back to the Future Trading creates an unmatched analytical powerhouse. While NinjaTrader's extensive array of technical indicators and chart types remains invaluable, the addition of predictive indicators takes trading analysis to the next level. These indicators empower traders with the ability to foresee potential market trends, making their decision-making process significantly more proactive.

Algorithmic Trading: NinjaTrader's automated trading functionalities, when bolstered by the predictive indicators from Back to the Future Trading, become an even more formidable asset. By harnessing NinjaScript's algorithmic development capabilities and coupling them with predictive insights, traders can design and implement automated strategies that capitalize on anticipatory trade signals, translating to swift and effective execution.

Market Replay and Backtesting: NinjaTrader's Market Replay feature and robust backtesting capabilities, enhanced by the integration of Back to the Future Trading's predictive indicators, offer traders an unprecedented edge. Simulating and refining strategies with historical market data gains an entirely new dimension when guided by predictive insights. This integration empowers traders to assess strategy effectiveness comprehensively and fine-tune approaches with a future-oriented perspective.

Brokerage Integration: The seamless integration of NinjaTrader with diverse brokerages is elevated by the incorporation of Back to the Future Trading's predictive indicators. This seamless amalgamation ensures traders not only execute trades directly from the platform but also do so with predictive insights that can be a game-changer in volatile markets.

And here's a bonus: For new traders looking to explore the world of futures trading, Back to the Future Trading offers a selection of free indicators. These indicators serve as a valuable starting point, allowing new traders to dip their toes into predictive trading strategies without any upfront costs.

In the dynamic landscape of futures trading, leveraging predictive indicators can be the key to staying ahead. The marriage of NinjaTrader's cutting-edge technology with the forward-looking indicators from Back to the Future Trading creates an ecosystem where traders can thrive. This dynamic pairing, with its predictive insights, advanced technology, customization options, potent charting tools, algorithmic trading capabilities, seamless brokerage integration, and support for new traders, revolutionizes the way traders approach the markets. Armed with foresight and a comprehensive support system, traders can confidently navigate the futures market and emerge victorious.

automate
July 28, 2023

Trading with lunar cycles, predictively

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Lunar Cycles: Unveiling the Mystery Behind Predictive Trading in Stock Markets

Introduction

In the world of financial markets, traders and investors are constantly seeking new tools and techniques to gain an edge in predicting market movements. While traditional methods such as technical and fundamental analysis remain popular, some market participants are turning to an unconventional approach – lunar cycles. The idea of using lunar cycles to predict stock market behavior may seem esoteric, but a growing number of proponents argue that the moon's phases can offer valuable insights. In this article, we explore how traders and investors are leveraging lunar cycles in their quest for predictive trading.

The Concept of Lunar Cycles

Lunar cycles refer to the recurring patterns of the moon's phases, as it orbits the Earth. The lunar month, spanning approximately 29.5 days, sees the moon transition from a new moon (invisible) to a full moon (completely visible) and back again. Advocates of lunar cycle trading believe that these moon phases have a subtle but significant impact on human behavior and, by extension, market sentiment.

Trading with the Moon Phases

One common approach among lunar cycle traders is to observe the market's performance during specific moon phases and discern patterns over time. For instance, some traders look for correlations between bullish trends and the occurrence of full moons, theorizing that the increased brightness of a full moon may positively influence investor confidence.

Others track the new moon phase, associating it with the beginning of new market cycles or shifts in momentum. The new moon's darkness might be perceived as a time of uncertainty, prompting traders to exercise caution and possibly reduce their exposure to risk.

Statistical Analysis and Data Mining

To apply lunar cycles to trading, proponents rely heavily on statistical analysis and data mining. They comb through historical market data, comparing it with lunar phases, in search of any consistent relationships. While some studies have suggested correlations between moon phases and market behavior, the results are often mixed and inconclusive.

Behavioral Psychology and Sentiment Analysis

The basis for lunar cycle trading lies in behavioral psychology, as it is believed that human emotions and decision-making can be influenced by celestial events. Behavioral finance scholars argue that investors' decisions can be impacted by external factors, including the psychological effects of the lunar cycle.

Critics and Skepticism

Despite the growing interest in lunar cycle trading, skeptics remain unconvinced about its efficacy. They argue that any observed correlations between moon phases and market movements may be mere coincidences or the result of data mining bias. Furthermore, market behavior is influenced by numerous complex factors, and attributing it solely to lunar cycles oversimplifies the complexity of financial markets.

Conclusion

While the concept of using lunar cycles to predict stock market movements is intriguing, it remains a subject of debate and skepticism. Traders and investors should approach such unconventional methods with caution and not abandon well-established analytical techniques. As financial markets continue to evolve, it is essential to remain open to innovative ideas while maintaining a critical and empirical approach to trading strategies. Ultimately, successful trading demands a robust understanding of market dynamics, risk management, and a disciplined approach to decision-making.

automate
July 19, 2023

Using technology to predict market moves

Tags: , , , , , , , Trading Insights
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Unveiling the Future: Leveraging Historical Patterns and Modern Computers for Predictive Insights

The study of history has always provided valuable insights into the present and future. In the realm of finance, historical patterns serve as a treasure trove of information for predicting future market trends. With the advent of modern computers and advanced data analysis techniques, harnessing the power of historical patterns has reached new heights. In this blog post, we will explore how historical patterns, in combination with modern computing capabilities, can be leveraged to make accurate predictions about the future of financial markets.

Big Data and Machine Learning
Modern computers equipped with powerful processors and vast storage capabilities enable the analysis of massive amounts of data. By applying machine learning algorithms to historical market data, computers can identify intricate patterns that may go unnoticed by human analysts. These algorithms can uncover complex relationships, correlations, and non-linear trends, empowering investors to make more precise predictions and informed investment decisions.

Algorithmic Trading
Algorithmic trading relies on sophisticated computer programs that automatically execute trades based on predefined rules and strategies. These algorithms can incorporate historical patterns, technical indicators, and market data to generate buy and sell signals with minimal human intervention. By leveraging the computational power of modern computers, algorithmic trading systems can identify and act upon market patterns in real-time, potentially capitalizing on fleeting opportunities.

High-Frequency Trading
High-frequency trading (HFT) utilizes ultra-fast computers and advanced algorithms to execute trades within fractions of a second. These systems can analyze historical patterns and real-time market data simultaneously, enabling traders to capitalize on short-term price discrepancies and exploit market inefficiencies. By leveraging the speed and computational capabilities of modern computers, HFT firms aim to gain a competitive edge in predicting and reacting to market movements.

Data Visualization and Pattern Recognition
Modern computers enable the visualization of complex data sets, allowing analysts to identify patterns visually. Data visualization tools can plot historical market data, overlay technical indicators, and display patterns such as support and resistance levels or trend lines. These visual representations enhance the human ability to recognize and interpret patterns, supporting decision-making processes and enabling investors to anticipate future market trends.

Conclusion
Combining historical patterns with modern computing capabilities revolutionizes the way we predict financial markets. The immense processing power, machine learning algorithms, algorithmic trading systems, and data visualization tools available today empower investors and analysts to uncover hidden patterns, make accurate predictions, and capitalize on market opportunities. However, it is important to remember that human judgment and expertise are still essential in interpreting the insights provided by computers. The symbiotic relationship between historical patterns and modern computers holds immense potential for navigating the dynamic landscape of finance and unlocking the future of market prediction.

automate
December 21, 2022

Overcoming the emotional stress of trading

Tags: , , , , , , Trading Insights
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Traders, whether they are trading stocks, currencies, or any other financial instruments, must learn to control their emotions if they want to be successful. This is because emotions can often cloud judgment and lead to poor decision making, which can be costly in the fast-paced world of trading.
 
One way for traders to control their emotions is through the use of risk management techniques. This includes setting clear and defined risk limits for each trade, as well as having a solid trading plan in place that outlines the steps to be taken in various market conditions. By having a plan and sticking to it, traders can remove some of the emotional decision making from the equation and rely on a more systematic approach. We're amazed, after being in business for over 13 years. When we ask people to show us a copy of their trading plan, on average fewer than 5% of people we meet who describe themselves as day traders have an actual physical written out trading plan with any type of a statistical edge. Most people are 'shooting from the hip' and basing trades on 'in the moment' decisions that fail quite often. 
 
Another way to control emotions is through mindfulness and self-awareness. Traders should take the time to recognize and understand their own emotions and how they may be affecting their decision making. This can be done through mindfulness practices such as meditation, which can help traders gain clarity and focus, as well as through self-reflection and journaling. We have many customers who will actually monitor their emotions and ask themselves each day before they trade 'how do I feel?' They measure themselves objectively (physically and mentally) and rate their wellbeing. If they are less than a 7, they will only trade in SIM that day. They build in this emotional/physical 'circuit breaker' to make sure they're only trading when they are mentally optimal, and not prone to self sabotage that day. 
 
Traders should also be aware of their own biases and try to avoid letting them influence their trades. This includes avoiding overconfidence, which can lead to overtrading, as well as avoiding the sunk cost fallacy, which is the tendency to continue investing in a losing trade in the hopes of recouping losses. Instead, traders should focus on the potential future returns of a trade rather than the past performance or emotions associated with it.
 
It is also important for traders to remember that they cannot control the market, and it is important to accept this reality. Trying to fight the market or hold onto a losing trade can lead to emotional decision making and ultimately result in further losses. Instead, traders should focus on controlling their own actions and making decisions based on logical analysis and their trading plan. One of the reasons we developed our predictive software - was based completely on this idea. By understanding that markets had an element of institutional 'manipulation', we are able to study what is likely to happen in the future, versus fighting the market and trading it the way we would like it to go. 
 
To further control their emotions, traders can also seek the support of a mentor or a trading community. Having someone to discuss trades and strategies with can help traders gain perspective and avoid making emotional decisions in the heat of the moment. It can also be helpful to have a support network of fellow traders who can provide guidance and encouragement.
 
In summary, controlling emotions is crucial for traders in order to make sound and profitable decisions. This can be achieved through risk management techniques, mindfulness and self-awareness, avoiding biases, accepting market realities, and seeking support from mentors or trading communities. By learning to control their emotions, traders can improve their chances of success in the fast-paced and often volatile world of trading.
 
 
 
 
automate
June 29, 2021

Asian session trading with TIME

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Today June 06 -21, we have a busy morning. It's a good session though, and I'm using predictive TIMES.

So, for me I just wait until the opening bell at 8:30. I live in Latin America, so my time clock has 1 hour of difference.

If you have the software already, my setup for my predictive time signal software (TachEON Warp) is as follows:

• Swing: 10
• Origination Mode: Trading Days
• Source Days: 1-2-3-4
• Volatility Stop Offset ATR: 1,2

 

 

Tacheon WARP

I excute my positions in 1 minute chart and watch the 3 min chart as the Anchor chart. I also use this chart to filter “the noise”, when I see to much signals closer in the 1 minute chart.

The price in the Asian session has its explosion move, so for my morning New York session the price is in range. Buyers are taking profits and reloading again, that’s my mindset for today.

The first possible entry was the puncture technique (“Puncture1”), but its to early for me. The second possible entry was the “puncture2” but I let I go. So, at 8:53 i open the trade with 4 contracts, the stop loss is 1 tick under the price line of the 8:53 signal, and I hold it.

I must confess that I was nervous with the pullback, but my 1,2 ATR stop offset setup gave me the required “room” to let the trade breathe.

Tacheon WARP

I cover my first 2 contracts with 23,75 ticks. At that point I move my stop loss to breakeven point, and the pullback take out my position.

Then this.

The opening bell starts at 8:30, I let the price run, the movement is violent like always and i am aware of the 8:33 signal in the 3 min chart, so my initial bias can be correct. I left a buy limit order near the 120 EMA but the price in the pullback does not reach the order, so I let the price go.

I am over the 120 EMA. Where do I have the next bullish time signal?, at 8:53, so I have to wait until that time.

 

 

My daily profit target was achieved. $510 usd.

 

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogota-Colombia

automate
June 9, 2021

Trading GANN times on the NASDAQ

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Today im trading the E-mini Nasdaq

I have a daily routine in trading. 30 minutes before getting visual contact with my charts. I take my time to meditate with music, in my desktop chair and visualize my entry patterns. Remember that my trading is based on predictive signals, so y anticipates in my mind the Patterns 1 and 2 and the inverted patterns 3 and 4 specifically.

For the E-mini Nasdaq futures market, the price per tick specified by the CME Group is $20 per tick. Always you read my articles, you can find my routine before opening bell as follows:

1. Read my economic calendar.
2. Check the range before the opening bell. Accumulation zone
3. And identify possible range zones y the future. Closer signals in the Warp panel
4. Ready with my ATM of 3 or 4 contracts
5. 3 trades per day

This is my 3minute chart and determine the trend tendency from the Asian session as Bearish. After a big move trend there is always a “pause”; So for today for me I’m waiting before the opening bell, that the Price closes the gap to the 120 EMA, and validate a possible bearish entry.

Trading leading GANN times on the Emini Nasdaq

When the markets open, I wait for a candle that closes under the 120 EMA. My Stop Loss is 1 tick above that candle. At 8:36 that candle appears and I activate the trade. The size of the candle determines $300 of stop loss, that is ok for me and my actual capital...

Leading Predictive Times help guide my trades

Even if I have the 8:37 timestamp signal so closer. In my mind I ignore it. Why?

Because in my 3 minute chart I have enough time space between 8:39 through 8:51. That’s a personal way to reduce the noise, when I found to much closer signals in 1 minute. I can wait for leading predictive times which have more time between them, for longer trades to develop with potentially more profit. 

Watch how the times setup perfectly for my trade

The next step is the manage the trade so in the last 1 min chart shown above I have a window between 8:42 and 8:51 so I hold the trade until that time. I alternate visually between the 2 charts. I also trail my stop in the big picture chart using one candle closed behind the active candle price.

Managing the trade

The next move was so hard that closes my trade in profit.  I ended my day with 3x my personal daily profit. That is $1.640

Taking profit

 

Good trading, everyone!

Juan Fernando Vega

Mechanical Engineer

Bogota-Colombia

Spanish - Support

automate
May 28, 2021

Perfection is the enemy of execution

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By Juan Vega, contributing author and trader / Bogota, Columbia

When you are using warp software, there are sometimes when you cannot find the predictive times signals “aligned”.

As a trader, at the beginning I always want the perfect dot in the swing highs and swing lows, telling me, the market is ready, perfect, just execute! But after several failures I asked for help and paid for learning “inversed patterns”. I also have paid for the trading room 2 or 3 years ago, to learn more and ask more, maybe my first 2 or 3 months.
I trade with 2 charts always: My fast time frame chart in 1 minute and my anchor chart in 3 minutes. Sometimes I check the warp panel to identify messy time signals. So, when I see too much signals closer each other, defining me the “range” type market, I use my 3 minute chart more often. My trading session hours are from 7:30 until 11:00am max. I trade the New York Session that its perfect for me.

Today I trade Gold futures market, who pays $10 per tick. And my plan is simple:

1. Read my economic calendar
2. Check the range before the opening bell. Accumulation zone
3. And identify possible range zones y the future. Closer signals in the Warp panel
4. Ready with my ATM of 3 or 4 contracts
5. 3 trades per day

 

Watching predictive indicator for trade entries

At the left I identify the range before, 8:20, so at 8:31 I did not see any violence in the price or a clue to validate my entry. So I said, " if the candle closes over the 120 EMA (the blue one) I open a trade."

And it did it.

Watching what happens at the predictive times

If you check at that time, I have a yellow dot (08:41) Signal. When you have this situation, I just take the dot as an objective profit level; If the price crosses the profit level, I HOLD it until the next price signal (8:48). My ATM for 4 contracts in Gold is, First 2 contracts takes profit @ 20 ticks, Third contract @ 40 ticks and the third one “the runner” @ 80 ticks.

For my Risk management, I just said: “Or pay me the first 2 contracts or activate my Stop Loss”. For this trade My first 2 contracts reaches the first 20 ticks ($400), at that moment my ATM moves my Stop Loss to BE(Break even), and the other two contracts were closed when my time at 8:48 was ended for ($540). At the level defined by the dot signal @ 08:58 I identify a pattern 4, and I was expecting a moderate size candle closing over the yellow line, but it never comes!!.

Executing responsibly at the predictive indicator times

The New Home sales report was lunched, and the price pumped up. I just said “Bye Bye” the candle was too big for me, and never comes back, 50% of the candle to take a risky trade, by price action with lower size position. I ended my day with almost 1k and trade no more. I was satisfied, because I know what to wait, and what the price are doing combined with the predictive signals. My training hours at the beginning of my predictive technique journey paid off the investment sessions.

Juan Fernando Vega
Mechanical Engineer
Bogota-Colombia
Spanish - Support

 

 

automate
May 21, 2021

How I trade predictive time signals

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Contributed by Juan Vega / Futures Trader / Colombia

It’s fascinating been exposed to the 30 largest companies of the US in the future market. The E-mini-Dow represents a portion of the standard Dow Jones industrial average futures. Three months from now I been trading the E-mini dow jones contract using predictive signals in 1 and 3 minutes timeframe.

I also have included in my 1-minute chart the 120 EMA of my 3 minute chart, just to have a visual zone, where the price can react.

The minimum price fluctuation specified by the CME group is $5 dollars. There are other markets more attractive that pays “more” per tick. But what fascinating me is the “behavior” of the market during the predictive times signals that the software gave me in advance. In my chart the yellow dots are selling pressure signals and the white dots are buying pressure signals, you can change the color if you want, it's just my preference.

In markets like NQ or ES I wait the second or third signal after the opening bell, But with the YM, I have tested and open trades during the opening bell. I have included in my trading plan that option only for the YM, I also open trades if I have a signal before like 8:21 or 8:25 and hold until the open.

I also check my economic calendar for the day, just to see the context of the day, but, honestly, I just execute the time cycles trading signals, that my system says to me.

As a result, I open 2 trades in the YM with 4 contracts each trade. I also knew that the housing starts and permits news was at 8:30.

 

 

Patiently I wait the reaction under the 3 min 120 EMA and make the entries when the candle close under the 1 min 120 EMA.

First trade 45 points x $5 x 4 contracts, the second one 100 point x $5 x 4 contracts. I was near the 3k today.

My stop loss changes from 32 pts (32 x $5 x 4=$640) based on the ATR (Average True Range) in that moment for 4 contracts to 64 points for the second trade. This ATR for me is too big, so I wait the candle close confirmation under the 120 EMA.

The predictive signals “aligned” with the swing highs and lows of the movements the institutions have done in the past. I know that, since yesterday.

Now the most beautiful for me, is, I make my day.

What can I do with the rest of my free time?

That’s Professional Trading. Time to think, for family, for me, and create new investments.

Juan Fernando Vega
Bogota-Colombia
Spanish - Support