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Level The Trading Playing Field

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Most traders are taught to use lagging price, support, or volume indicators. These tools tell you what JUST HAPPENED. Is it any wonder why 90% of traders in the futures, Forex, equities, and commodities markets are failing?

The Guru Spiderweb

Most gurus and online vendors want you tethered to their chat rooms forever. They usually start by showing you how you can turn a small account into millions of dollars, if you'll only just follow them. Start with one lot....one contract....100 shares....and soon, maybe in a year, you'll be trading 100 lots, 100 contracts, and tens of thousands of shares.

And then, what happens next - you start "not getting it". Things they say don't make any sense. Trades they took yesterday, they don't take today or tomorrow. Setups and the rules that drive them have no boundaries. Trades you didn't even know they were in, they announce as winners. Trades you thought everyone was taking were proven to have never been entered into, or count against the official tally each week.

You start to feel guilty, and ask for some help. The "guru" tells you some more magical mysterious things with the admonition to "keep watching", and that most of his clients finally click 5 or 6 months into the program. And by the way, they're available for personal mentoring for even more money per month, where they will help you "get it" quicker. You pay the extra money, hoping that you'll have access to the secret knowledge you've been hoping to get a glimpse at, only to find at the end of the session that you've just been shown more mysterious techniques, that may or may not be used as the conditions set up, or don't set up, if they ever set up.

Sigh.

All the while, the people you trade against - are using computer trading servers the size of your office to move billions and trillions of dollars in and out of the markets. Those computers are programmed specifically to take the money out of the accounts of the many (that's you, by the way) and deposit it into the accounts of the few (that's them, by the way). They know where all your stops are, where all your targets are, and what it will take to entice you into a trade that you'll kick yourself hours later for having taken.

How do you stop the insanity of all this?

You come to accept a few fundamental truths about trading. Truths that we've heard from the "old timers" and pros that we work with, over and over and over.

First, it takes an average of 2-3 years to stop losing money. 3-5 to become net profitable.

Second, most pros use trading systems so simple, it would blow your mind. 2 indicators, 2 or 3 charts, tops.

Third, they would tell you to find a strategy that fits your personality type. What works for a guru, almost always won't make sense to you. You'll never trade it right.

Finally, they'd tell you that patience and discipline override the first three pieces of advice. That waiting for the setup...for ideal conditions to come along, is what allows them to be profitable and support themselves and their families.

Getting off of the roller coaster

That's where we come in.

We’ll show you how you can level the playing field, and trade when and where the Institutions trade, through powerful data mining tools that harness the power of your personal trading computer. The madness stops here, with the tools sitting on your computer and scanning the markets you trade for the ideal times - the times that the institutions usually move money into, and out of the markets.

We'll show you how to approach those times from several different trading personality strategies. Look at it from a trending, counter trending, scalping, or support and resistance rule set. Something that fits who you are, and what you fundamentally believe and see when you look at the charts.

Are there any good guru's out there. Admittedly, there are a handful. In the broad spectrum of things however, you'll have to wade through piles of the bad ones to get to the ones with good intentions. The lure of a recurring monthly payment is often times too much for a guru to walk away from. I believe many of them started out okay, and devolved out of frustration into the marketing machines that they've become, feeding off of the desperation of traders that just want a straight answer.

It's why we do what we do every day - and why we'll never forget that we were traders first, and why we've spent every minute of the last few years developing a tool that exposes what I believe to be one of the biggest weaknesses of the institutions we all trade against.

To learn more about the tools, and you can use them to level both the Guru playing field, and the trading playing field, enter your real name and email address and click subscribe in the box on the right side of the page.

By studying the past, you can tell the future

News, Trading Insights

History, has some uncomfortable but exciting things to say about predicting market movements.

WD Gann, who was reportedly over 85% accurate in his trading during his lifetime, said something very curious towards the end of his career.

He said,

"TIME is the most important factor in determining market movements and by studying the past records of the averages or individual stocks you will be able to prove for yourself that history does repeat and that by knowing the past you can tell the future. … There is a definite relation between TIME and PRICE. … Now, by a study of the TIME PERIODS and TIME CYCLES you will learn why tops and bottoms are found at certain times and why Resistance Levels are so strong at certain times and bottoms and tops hold around them."

WD Gann also said,

"Mathematical science, which is the only real science that the entire civilized world has agreed upon, furnishes unmistakable proof of history repeating itself and shows that the cycle theory, or harmonic analysis, is the only thing that we can rely upon to ascertain the future."

...and then,

"Every movement in the market is the result of a natural law and of a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance. The future is but a repetition of the past."

These were pretty bold statements for WD Gann in his day and time. He had no access to computers of any kind - no calculators within reach. And yet, after years of study and hand calculations, he was able to uncover an order and rhythm of market behavior patterns - clearly enough to trade profitably nearly 9 times out of ten.

If you flash forward some 60 years, we discover Welles Wilder, the creator of the RSI indicator, the ATR indicator, among many other fundamental technical indicators that millions of traders around the world use today. A trading and technical analysis giant - like WD Gann.

When presenting his experiences with something later referred to as "the Market Delta', Wilder opens his statements this way:

"...Those who know me well know that I am not given to vain statements or careless exaggerations. What you are about to read is true ... every word of it."

We then see market charts, like this one:

The blue boxes on the top and the bottom of the chart, are the dates and times that his system predicted the actual turn of the markets.  The circles on the chart are where the markets actually stopped, and turned.

Wilder - a mathematician like WD Gann, recognized that there was more involved here - something deep and staggering in it's hidden nature.

To validate his thoughts, he hired a mathematician to calculate the odds and statistics of the probability of the times being as accurate as they were. Here's what he reported afterwards:

"I asked a mathematician to make the following calculation.

If there is not perfect order in the markets, what are the chances that One could know in advance that T- Bonds would make the highs and lows (in high/low rotation) as shown on the chart? The answer is one chance in 322 billion! To be exact, 1 in 332,687,692,541 that the turning points on the chart could have been known before they happened. "

"...For all twenty-five commodities, which include over 200 years of observing the Delta phenomenon, the average accuracy for all Intermediate-term points is as follows:

[1] 51 % of the time the projected Delta turning points will occur within two days of the projected day.

[2] 68% of the time the projected Delta turning point will occur within three days of the projected day.

[3] 81% of the time the projected Delta turning point will occur within four days of the projected day...."

 

I want you to keep one thing in mind - both of these men accomplished these findings without the aid of a modern day - personal trading computer.

Welles, had access to one of those computers we read about in history books - the ones that filled spaces the size of your living room. Computers with less power than the simplest of cell phones, and some watches made today.

And so three years ago, when we first turned on the Flux data mining tools and went searching for the behavioral patterns  - it was an extremely exciting opportunity. Imagine if Wilder or Gann had access to a Quad Core, I5, or I7 trading computer. Imagine if we could cut their learning curve down from years to months to minutes? What if we could find the patterns in the markets - analyze thousands of historical data bars and prices in a matter of a minute - and see for ourselves if these outrageous claims were in fact valid after all this time.

And so, we turned on our tools and asked our computer a very simple question - are there any time based cycles in the market you're about to analyze for us?

We knew what a cycle looked like. We knew what noise - or junk - looked like. It was an all or nothing proposition.

And we clicked on the mouse - and let the processor start crunching data.....here's what came back:

We practically fell out of our chairs.

There they were. Waves. Cycles. Up. Stop. Turn. Down. Stop. Turn. Up.

But were they truly predictive?

The cycles are known as far out as a week in advance. 7 days.

Wilder said he could plot a daily chart out 20, 30 years into the future. Would the same theory hold 7 days out?

 

So we went back and had the computer plot a marker where the cycles had been forecast to stop, and turn.  Big dots for trend reversals...small dots for momentum reversals.

And then we had our Welles Wilder moment. It's like we were watching WD Gann laughing on our screens...

Remember, the dots are what happened after the fact. Like the round circles on the Market Delta pages.

Do the majority of the markers appear at actual highs and lows of actual market price action?

Yes.

Three years later, we've studied equities, forex pairs, futures markets....commodities and bonds - you name it. 30 tick charts up to 30-60-240 minute charts. Cycles that last a few minutes out to cycles that last a few days - and the results are always the same.

500 customers and growing - trading every market and every trading methodology known to man. People are fighting back against the institutional trading computers and the big money players - harnessing the power of their trading computers to analyze the markets like we think Goldman Sachs and other financial juggernauts are doing.

I wish we could spend a few minutes with Gann, or with Welles, and show them what we've developed. I can't help but think they'd laugh and say, "Well done, boys", or "Yes sir, that's exactly what I was thinking when I was writing my thoughts down...". It's fun to speculate.

The good news, you don't have to lay out $30,000 for Welles' book. Or spend 7 years attempting to decode Gann's secret knowledge. You can load your historical data into the tool set, hit your left mouse button, and watch the results come back on your screen in less than a minute - for as many markets as you want to analyze or trade.

Take a minute to watch our free product demo. Reading about it is one thing - but seeing it for the first time - I envy you guys. I'll never forget that day, and I hope you'll have the opportunity to see it and experience it for yourself.

 

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How would your trading change if...?

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How would your trading change, if you knew what the big money knew – when the trends were going to start, what direction they were most likely to move, and when those trends were most likely to stall out into consolidation?

Would you be a much better trader, if you knew exactly what the market was going to do, and be waiting there on the minute the market arrived at that time?

The entire question is based on the premise that the markets are predictive at all...that there's anything about them we can know in advance.

Take a look at this chart: (click to enlarge)

What makes this chart unusual, is the fact that all of the green and red "dots" represent turning point times that were carved in stone before the crude market ever opened. 6 days before it opened, in fact.  They have nothing to do with price action...nothing to do with what was said or not said in the news. They are times that we were watching for activity at, that were all known in advance.

So now, we ask ourselves as traders with predictive tools....

What should I see, if this is really a time where money is coming into the market?

What should I see, if this is truly a profit taking behavior moment?

What are the obvious reversal prices? Where might this take place?

The trade on this screen was taken as a continuation move. But note the movement of the market around the times that we were expecting market reversals. If you only used these times as guides and said, "I will only trade long when I expect longs, and only trade short when I expect institutional short behaviors", how would you have done across the time period shown?

Some Flux clients will do that very thing, or they will wait for time and price to come together...waiting for a strong support or resistance level to line up with a known institutional behavioral reversal time. Look at this chart in the AUDUSD 5 minute and see how waiting to be under support for a short, or over support for a long, coupled with a known reversal behavior time produced moves instantly in the direction of the trade with little to no heat on the position.

These are just a few of the ways your mind starts to change when you are anticipating what SHOULD happen next, versus sitting there like 90% of traders imagining and hoping what could happen every few seconds...every other bar.

If you'd like to learn more about these techniques, and other methods of applying the results of the Flux data mining tools, simply enter your real name and email address and click subscribe in the box on the right side of the page.